2013 trend prediction
It is the end of the year and some of my friends ask me about what do I think about 2013. Although it is difficult to predict anything but there are some technologies trends begin to take shape and they may happen in 2013:
1) The use of social media has been growing fast. Facebook already reached over a billion users and the number is still increasing. It may reach another half billion users by the end of 2013.
2) Tablets and smartphones market have been growing strong and more applications are needed for these fast growing market. Mobile platforms and operating systems such as Android, IOS and Window 8 will compete for users and it is difficult to predict who will be the winner. At this time, the gold standard is still Apple's IOS but Android has more users and rapidly gaining momentum and Window 8 is beginning to penetrate the business world. I think 2013 would be an interesting year for these three competing companies.
3) The insourcing trend already gained momentum and halted many offshore outsourcing programs. Companies are moving more works back home which will impact countries whose economies are depending on outsourcing business. At the same time the cost of doing business in places like India and China has soared. The differential between a low-cost countries and developed countries is narrowing so it is no longer a cost advantage to outsource works there anymore. Outsourcing never had a good public image, especially during the recession with high unemployment and it has got worse to the point that any company that outsource are seen negatively by the public as well as their governments. China and India's economies may experience these impacts with high unemployment and slow growth in the next few years.
4) The recessions in Europe is getting worst, unemployment particularly youth unemployment is reaching all time high. Countries such as Spain, Portugal, Greece, and Italy are having 42% of their young people under 25 year old out of work. Most graduates could not find jobs and older people who are working do not retire. In this kind of situation there will be more strikes which will create unstable economies that could spread all over Europe and many governments could change.
5) Automation trend is growing fast among companies which require more workers with information technology skills; as more tasks are being automated and this will create enormous unemployment among people who do not have the skills and significant shortage of people with IT skills.
6) The global market has narrowed down to fewer needed skills, mostly STEM skills (Science, Technology, Engineering and Math) and if you do not have them, you will not be able to get job. If you have these skills and be able to speak English well, you can make a living from anywhere or go anywhere to work. This potentially changes entire industries as more teams will be distributed globally.
7) The competition for skilled workers will intensify among developed countries with ease of immigration for skilled people. Currently Europe, Canada and the U.S are opening doors for people who have certain needed skills to come and work which will impact developing countries who need them to improve their economies.
Sources
- Blogs of Prof. John Vu, Carnegie Mellon University
