Create a Decision Tree

A decision tree is a graphic flowchart that represents the process of making a decision or a series of decisions. It is a decision support tool that uses a tree-like graph or model of decisions and their possible consequences.[1] Businesses use decision trees to determine company policy or as a published tool for their employees. Individuals can use decision trees to help them make difficult decisions by reducing them to a series of simpler, or less emotionally laden, choices. You can learn how to make a decision tree unique to your needs by identifying your problem and either creating a basic decision tree, or a worry decision tree.

Steps

Identifying Your Problem

  1. Identify the main decision you want to make.[2] Before you start your decision tree you need to find out the main heading for the tree, or the problem that you want solved.
    • For example, your main problem or decision you need to make might be what car you want to buy.
    • Focus on one problem or decision at a time in order to reduce confusion and increase clarity.
  2. Brainstorm. Brainstorming can help you develop ideas. Write down each of the variables associated with the decision that you want the decision tree to help you make. Write them down on a sheet of paper, or in the margin of your main sheet.
    • For example, if you were making a decision tree for buying a car, your variables might be "price," "model," "fuel efficiency," "style" and "options."
  3. Prioritize the variables you've listed. Find out what parts are the most important to you and write them down in order (from most to least important). Depending on the kind of decision you're making, you can prioritize the variables chronologically, by order of importance, or both.[3]
    • For a simple work vehicle, you might prioritize your car decision tree branches as price, fuel efficiency, model, style and options. If you were buying the car as a gift for your spouse, the priorities might go: style, model, options, price, and fuel efficiency.
    • One way to understand this is to make a graphic representation of the bigger decision versus the components needed to make the decision. You would place the bigger issue in the center (organizational issues with affect work quality), and the components of the issue would branch out from the center.[4] So, buying a car is the bigger issue, while price and model are factors that affect the final decision.

Creating a Basic Decision Tree

  1. Draw a circle. Begin your decision tree by drawing a circle, or box if you prefer, on 1 edge of your paper. Label it to represent the most important variable in your decision tree.[5]
    • When buying a work vehicle, you might draw a circle on the left edge of your paper and label it "price."
  2. Create lines. Make at least 2, but preferably no more than 4, lines leading out from the first variable. Label each line to represent an option or range of options derived from that variable.
    • From your "price" circle, you could draw 3 arrows labeled "under $10,000," "$10,000 to $20,000" and "over $20,000."
  3. Draw circles of boxes at the end of each line. These represent the next priority on your list of variables. Draw lines radiating from those circles representing the next set of options. In many cases, the specific options will be different for each box, based on the parameters chosen from your first decision.[6]
    • In this example, each box would read "fuel efficiency." Because less expensive cars often have lower gas mileage, your 2 to 4 choices from each fuel efficiency circle would represent a different range.
  4. Continue adding boxes and lines. Keep adding to your flowchart until you've reached the end of your decision matrix.[7]
    • It's common to come up with additional variables while you're creating your decision tree. In some cases, these will apply to only 1 "branch" of your tree. In others, it will apply to all branches.

Creating a Worry Decision Tree

  1. Understand the worry decision tree. The worry tree helps you to: recognize what type of worry you are having, turn worries into problems that can be solved, and decide when it is safe to ‘let go’ of worries. There are two types of things not worth worrying about, things that you can do something about and things that you can’t do something about.[8]
    • Use the worry tree plan to check out one of your worries. If it is a worry that you cannot do anything about, you will know that it is safe to stop worrying. You could distract yourself if you find this difficult to do.
    • If it is a worry that you can do something about, you can “problem solve” it. You will not have to worry about it anymore because you will have a plan.
    • If the worry comes up again you can tell yourself that you have a plan so you don’t need to worry.[8]
  2. Identify what you are worrying about. In order to fix your issue you first need to be clear about what the problem is.
    • Answer the question, “What are you worrying about?” Write the answer at the top of your sheet of paper. This will become the main heading of your decision tree.
    • You can use the information you gathered from the Identifying Your Problem section.
    • For example, your main issue could be that you failed your math test and you are worried about it.
  3. Analyze if there is anything you can do about it. The first step to stopping your worry is finding out what you can do to solve it.
    • Place one line coming down from your main decision tree heading and label it, “Can I do anything about this.”
    • Then place two lines coming out of that heading, one saying Yes and the other No.
    • If the answer is NO, circle it. It is safe to stop worrying.
    • If the answer is YES, make a list of what you could do or how you could find out what to do (on a separate sheet of paper).
  4. Ask yourself what you can do right now. Sometimes we are able to fic the problem right away, while others may take more time.
    • Place a line coming out of your last answer (Yes or No). Label it, “Is there anything you can do right now?”
    • Place again two lines coming out of this heading and label them Yes and No.
    • If the answer is No, circle it. Then, problem solve and make a plan for the future (on a separate sheet of paper). Then, decide when to carry out the plan. Then it’s safe to stop worrying and you can distract yourself.
    • If YES, then circle it. Then, problem solve, make a plan, and then DO IT. It is then safe to stop worrying and distract yourself.[9]

Sample Decision Tree

Doc:Decision Tree



Tips

  • You can color-code your decision tree if that helps you with your personal process.
  • A large sheet of presentation paper or art paper is often better than a standard letter-size sheet.

Things You'll Need

  • Pencil or pens
  • Paper

Sources and Citations

  1. ↑ http://www.configworks.com/dj/Proceedings_ConfigurationWorkshop2004.pdf#page=5
  2. ↑ http://www.sagepub.com/sites/default/files/upm-binaries/32693_Chapter1.pdf
  3. ↑ http://syque.com/quality_tools/toolbook/Decision/do.htm
  4. ↑ http://evaluationtoolbox.net.au/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=28&Itemid=134
  5. ↑ http://www.decision-making-confidence.com/decision-trees-examples.html
  6. ↑ http://www.mindtools.com/dectree.html
  7. ↑ http://chai.eecs.umich.edu/EmilyPapers/Lee2011_SpeechComm.pdf
  8. ↑ 8.0 8.1 http://cedar.exeter.ac.uk/media/universityofexeter/schoolofpsychology/cedar/documents/Worry_website_version_colour.pdf
  9. ↑ http://www.mhim.org.uk/document_uploads/helpguides/Unwindyourmind.pdf

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