Inventing the future
After World War 2, Japan's economy went to a deep recession, beside the humiliation of being defeated, their industries were also struggled to rebuild their destroyed factories. Companies have tried many things to put their people back to work, continue their businesses, and rebuild their economy but after few years, there was not much progress. As they were desperate for solution, an American professor named Edward Deming came in with a bold message: “You failed because most of your managers live in the past, how can they plan for the future?” According to many Japanese managers at that time, it was a “shock” that hurt them deeply. A factory owner recalled: “We were deeply hurt and angry at first but after a while, after all of us were calm down, we got together and discussed on what to do. If we continued the way it was then we did not see anything better. Finally we swallowed our pride and asked for advice.” The answer was straight forward and clear: “You can continue to build cheap products, copy products of others, follow the market trends, and hope for good thing to happen. Or you can build high quality products; innovate new products; set market trends, and be the “number one”. It is your choice but in this choice, you must change the way you manage your company. Forget your five years planning, forget your old hierarchical systems, forget your “legacy” business systems and start a new movement, a new way to build high quality products, and new way to manage your company that looking toward the future. Basically, you must start everything new.”
Deming made a significant contribution to Japan's economy and management system. Within twenty years, (1956-1976) Japan went from the bottom of the global economic index (Equal to many poor countries in Africa) to the top (Next to the U.S and UK) by its reputation for high-quality products and become a new economic power. Today Deming is regarded as having had more impact upon Japanese manufacturing and business than any other individual and was a hero in Japan. Many people considered his “Plan, Do, Check, Act” cycle as the most brilliant quality process for manufacturing but few people knew that Deming did not start with the manufacturing process but the management system. He told company owners: “Managers are affected by what they already done, by their past successes. In fact, they are so deeply affected by the past that they often resist the future. To make change happens, everything must start with management.” He demanded the change in management from top to bottom and starts a new management system that still being used in Japan today.
More than fifty year later, it seems that history is repeating itself. What happened in the past in Japan is happening today in many western countries. We are seeing companies that succeed in the past get left behind as new startups bypass them and capture the market. This is because the old management style has failed in this fast changing world as they have ignored the need to change, or have changed too little, too late. Ten years ago, Blackberries RIM invented the “smartphone” but today it struggled to survive as Apple and Google have captured the mobile market. Not long ago, Yahoo was the most powerful internet company but today it is pushed out by Google. Sun Micro-system was once the top company in Silicon Valley. It invented Java and great server products but its arrogant and ignored technology changes let the company stumbled with severe revenue losses and layoffs. Thirty years ago, Dell was the number one personal computer company with hundred million PCs sold. As it was satisfied with its desktops and laptops, its management ignored the emerging market of mobile devices such as iPhone, iPad and Android. Today it struggled and may not survive.
Few years ago, in an interview with newspapers Steve Jobs declared: “The present is the only time in which everything happens. To plan for the future is to bring the future into the present by create products in which nobody even know exist. That is the only way to invent the future.” Today Apple managers are trained to always look into the future for its innovative products. During recruitment at CMU, An Apple manager told my class: “If you really want to face the future, set unreasonable targets. Set one that people think impossible and surprise them with your ideas. And that is what Steve Jobs means by “stay hungry, stay foolish.”
Today innovation startups are quickly moved into technology markets with more energy and enthusiasm than ever before. Most entrepreneurs know that they are creating not just a business, a product but also a cause as they are inventing the future. Without thinking about the future, Steve Jobs would never create Apple computer, iPods, iPhone, and iPads etc. Without thinking about the future that software is the dominant force, Bill Gates would never established Microsoft. Without thinking about the future that the internet will connect everything, Larry Page and Sergei Brin would never create Google. Without thinking about the future that people would connect with each other to share experience, Mark Zuckerberg would never develop Facebook. The list is endless because every time I visit a university, whether in the U.S or in Asia, I find some people are working on some ideas that someday may change the world. There are so many wonderful ideas, great innovations that young people today are developing in their classes, in their laboratories or in their garages. They all share a common theme: “They are inventing the future.”
Since 2008, many large and well established companies struggled as they cannot keep pace with the fast changing market. A Wall Street analyst wrote: “If you look at the list of top 100 companies, more than half may not survive the next ten year. However, there are at least another hundred young and aggressive companies are emerging to replace them. The simple reason is old companies cannot change even they want to. Top managers cannot expect others and the company to change unless they are prepared to change themselves. The need for this personal transformation is difficult because most of them are living in the past, and turning their backs on the future. They have no vision, they cannot see beyond today so their tendency is to stick with the familiar rather than to venture into the unknown because they are afraid and that is why they will fail.”
Sources
- Blogs of Prof. John Vu, Carnegie Mellon University
