The future of computer
Today your smart phone has become your computer, your video game device, your camera, your music listening MP3, your radio and of course your phone, all in one device. In the near future, your phone applications will run in the browser but their code and data will be stored “in the cloud” of the phone company. When you search the Internet, some information will be stored on your phone but many will be stored in the cloud. You never have to worry about memory or storage anymore. You never have to worry about software update either because it will be automated by your phone company. Basically your smart phone will replace your laptop or your PC because few years from now, there will not be PC or laptops. Many PC and Laptop makers are already moving into smart phone business.
Today the market for mobile application is exploding. To understand this significant change, we must look at industry data: Between 1940 to 1970, the world had approximately 1 million mainframe computers. Between 1970 to 1980 the world had about 10 million mini-computers. Between 1980 to 2010 the world had 100 million PC and Laptops. Today the world already have 1 billion mobile phones. There is an estimate that in the next 5 years, smart phone will replaced mobile phone and reaching 2 billion units. Today, the world has approximately 10 million software workers but according to the study, the demand is about 25 million workers today and 50 million workers within the next 5 years. That is why there is a shortage of software workers today and more severe in the future. Software is an intellectual activities which requires special knowledge and intensive training. It cannot be mass-produced like labor workers. Even for the entry level jobs of programming and testing may takes 1 to 2 years of training. Most software development jobs requires at least 4 years of training in college.
Today broadband bandwidth for the internet has increased significantly. Memory and storage technology has made Cloud Computing the better choice for companies. There is cost saving to move to cloud computing instead of having in-house information system. Why buy computers, servers, and hire IT workers to managing them? Why buy operating system licenses, application licenses, pay maintenance fees every year? Why worry about security updates, virus, hackers and security issues when you can have other companies to provide these services at a “pay per usage” with cloud computing? Today any company can “rent” cloud computing services from IBM, Microsoft, HP, Google, and Amazon. These large companies have the expertise and experienced people to support whatever needs that you have at lower costs.
With mainframe computer, IBM is the dominant company because it controls most applications. With personal computer, Microsoft is the dominant company because it controls the operating system. With smart phone, the browser is becoming more important than the operating System. With HTML 5, many operating system capabilities become part of the browser and Google may become the next dominant company. The Personal Computer industry have created thousands of software companies, The smart phone industry will probably create millions of software companies or more. To start a software company for personal computer, you need million dollars and hire hundreds of software workers. However, to start a software company for smart phone, you only need few thousand dollars and hire 2 to 5 software workers to write mobile applications. Today, there are over thousand mobile app companies and many more coming. The low startup cost attracts a lot of people to enter this business.
Today, Google’s Android and Apple IOS are competing in this mobile business. In the past the phone companies control the mobile business and decided which applications would be available, and how much they would cost. With Apple and Google, it is the App developers to set the terms and conditions for all types of applications. The market will change more with smart phone, especially when it replaces PC and laptops. As broadband with high bandwidth are available, smart phone will be faster, better and mobile applications market will exploded with billion of new applications and users.
Today, there are a lots of video games available for mobile phones. Within few years, because of new bandwidth and cloud computing, many video games will be much faster and better. Especially when smart phone replace PC and Laptops, all video games available on PC will be converted to smart phone. Many people will play videogames with each other using their phones. More videogame companies focusing on smart phone will emerge with new products, new technology and new business.
There is a new concept that your smart phone is also your wallet because it can be connected to your bank. You do not need to bring money, you do not need to write check, you do not need a credit card to pay for things that you buy. All you need is to use your phone to send a payment to an merchant account and payment is done. Your smart phone is connected to the cloud. Your merchant account is also in the cloud so transaction can happen in matter of second. Future banking will be fully automated. According to a new study, “physical” banks will disappear within the next few years and “virtual” banks will emerged. All future financial transactions will be done electronically and eventually money will not be needed. Your payment, your salary, your financial transaction, your purchase, your investment, your saving, and everything to do with finance and banking will be done electronically. There will be more changes in other areas too as information technology changes everything.
You ask about the future of computer? The answer is simple: “It is in your hand – it is in your smart phone that connects to a phone company’s cloud computing.
Sources
- Blogs of Prof. John Vu, Carnegie Mellon University
