Predict Behavior

Predicting someone's behaviour is easier said than done.But this single skill can be the most important thing you will ever learn. Every animal, every person is a system of cause and reactions. As in any calculation, if you give a formula the exact same input, you will always get the same output.To predict someone’s action one should understand their formula.

Steps

  1. Practice storing information. Unfortunately, other people’s behavior, like your own, is learned. To understand someone’s formula will take time. You must have a collection of general behavioral archetypes stored in the back of your mind at all times and, more importantly, you must also have a Theory of Mind - the ability to see the world from another person’s perspective, understand that their history is different from yours, which means their preferences and life goals are most likely different, which means their REACTIONS won’t all be the same as your own.
  2. Develop a theory of mind. Can you put yourself in someone else’s shoes? Not just imagine how you would react if you were in their situation. I mean to feel the air around them as if it surrounded you, to see each face from their eyes, to empathize, even plan your next move as if you were them.
  3. Practice. A theory of mind comes only to those who listen. Remember that your body is a system. It can only focus on either in-taking information (listening, learning) or expelling it (talking, teaching). If you are doing one, then your mind cannot not focus on the other. The first step to developing a theory of mind is silence. Disappear from the world. (not literally). Quit trying to influence your surroundings with your own opinions, ideas, and motives; that will happen on its own. Instead sit back and watch life play out. Notice what it does without your involvement. Take note of the dramas that begin to form amongst people (because you know some will). Notice that every person has a unique way of responding to the same problems. Pay attention to dominant emotions; anger, confusion, fear, apathy… whatever it may be.
  4. Incorporate observation into your daily life. Once you are able to do this, don’t let it stop. Practice incorporating this level of observation into everyday life. (Warning: This does not mean over-analyzing situations. If you find yourself reading a lot of things negatively, sit back, relax, and start over. Remember that no situation is ever negative or positive, it simply happened and it is now time to plan how to either recover, or use it to your advantage. Getting stuck on negativity is counterproductive.) Even the most simple event can tell you a lot about a person.
  5. IE. If you noticed that Amy always turns away and smiles to herself after receiving a compliment….
  6. Next time Amy is mad, try giving her a compliment…. Maybe she’ll react the same way…
  7. If she does…. Success, you’ve just fount one of Amy’s “triggers”. If she is ever mad now, and you would like to shut her up, throw her a compliment and be sweet.(Add this piece of information to your collection under the name AMY. This was also a very basic example, and most things aren’t black and white.)
  8. If she didn’t take the compliment, well, you were wrong; maybe she reacts specifically to compliments from guys she likes, which means she probably doesn’t like you. Or maybe it was the compliment itself that hit a soft spot (her smile, her hair, her eyes). Whatever it is, don’t give up! But also remember…. Do not store information until you are confident it is valid. If your brain is as stubborn as mine, it’s easy to confuse false information with the truth.
  9. Practice Practice Practice Practice Practice. Now that you are able to keep your theory of mind from a third person perspective, exercise that thought process in daily life. Test your observations with people, without making it obvious. If you reveal to somebody that you are studying them, the test is flawed and you will never know for sure. Secrecy is your best friend. Send out triggers for different emotions you’ve already observed and practice getting the desired reactions. (Don’t piss people off, try making people happy instead or confusion is a fun one.)
  10. Understand that humans are just like any other system in our universe. Understand this. Humans are not special. There is no divine being dedicated to watching over us. We were not meant to traverse through space for the rest of eternity. We are most likely not the dominant life form in this universe. And Earth is not our playground nor is it our project, it is our fish tank. It is a chessboard for us to plan our lives out on, but once we make a move, there is no taking it back.
  11. If you can live life like this, truly observational and neutral, you will begin to gain your internal Locus of Control. In Social Psychology, this term refers to the extent of control you feel you have with the events in your life. It is very similar to confidence, but relies more on your internal ability to adapt and execute (positive conditioning) rather than an overwhelming feeling of invincibility.
  12. This is a lifestyle, live it. Anyway, we have strayed from the main topic. Understand, that the world is yours to mold. Even in all of its chaos, it is a blank canvas. Your actions directly impact your environment, and because of this knowledge, you are now sitting here in front of your computer, trying to figure out how to impact it in your favor.
  13. From this day on, as you find your balance between overanalyzing and being oblivious, practice. These are the teachings of the monk. Do not interfere with the flow of life around you (people, arguments, and dramas included), simply remain neutral and only step in when peace is at jeopardy. Do not try to impress people with all your cool-bro ski stories of the golden years, because every story you reveal about yourself makes you that much less advantageous. Do not hold grudges and hate, because in the end it was caused by a difference in preference - which in the grand scheme of things is just another primal emotion. Evolve yourself.

Tips

  • Instead of trying to predict exactly how someone will behave, list three actions that person might take and give each of those three a percentage chance of happening. As you get better, plan 8 actions a head and start adding depth.
  • Appreciate, don't become obsessed with manipulating behavior. Instead, appreciate all the differences you will begin to notice, and even more scary, all the similarities.
  • Try to give three reactions to each of the original three actions you predicted, planning ahead is man's greatest ability.

Warnings

  • Religions main problem is that it is stalling mankind. As long as we cling onto the hope that great things can happen to us out of the blue from a powerful external observer, then we are not working hard enough for those things ourselves. No god will end world hunger, no single being will unite the world, and no hand will stop your loved ones from dying because you asked.
  • Let’s use PETA as an example. If PETA was ran with a Theory of Mind, they’d be able to see their flaws from other people’s perspective. They’d learn that even though a lot of their points are valid and the programs intentions are good, the way they try to gain support actually turns people away. With a correct Theory of Mind, PETA should have taken their approach casually. Understand that you aren’t trying to scare people into joining your club, but inspire them. Perhaps target groups of people at a time, mothers, students, corporations, etc…. as of now they have mostly only taken rebel action, which overtime makes enemies and sours their name.
  • Extremists, people who are on the street protesting their point of view (with exceptions of course) generally have a poor Theory of Mind. They have one communal goal and instinct tells them to reach it the quickest way possible.
  • Here are some of the common fallacies:
  • Remember, do not become over obsessed. Do not overanalyze and do not become paranoid. This is a method of understanding our planet and modern environment. Use it to appreciate the beauty in this world.
  • Religion usually leaves you with an extremely external locus of control. Most religions focus on correcting behavior rather than correcting a state of mind. (IE…. Good intentions and a kind heart won’t get you into heaven, only following written steps and guidelines will get you there). It also specifies that you actually have no final say in where you will end up in life because it is not up to you.

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